A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
